Profile: Robert R. Trout: How fickle is the workforce?

When it comes to wrongful termination claims, it pays to know how long the plaintiff would have stayed with his or her employer if given the chance.

That depends on several factors. But according to Robert Trout, under a formula known as Conditional Probability of Employment Analysis (CPEA), the probability of a worker staying with a particular employer typically is about 0.9 for any one year. The probability of staying two years is about 0.81, and so on, as the conditional probability of remaining with any particular employer declines by a factor of about 0.1 each year.

Trout developed the CPEA model, which uses computer calculations to determine how long a fired employee was likely to have stayed in his or her job. Both plaintiffs and defendants in wrongful-termination cases find the model useful for quantifying the plaintiff's future economic loss.

For more information about CPEA, see Trout's article titled "Duration of Employment in Wrongful Termination Cases," in the Summer 1995 issue of Journal of Forensic Economics. A prolific writer, Trout is senior editor of JFE and managing editor of Litigation Economics Digest.

Primarily, he's an economic financial consultant with offices in Carlsbad and San Diego, Calif., who has 20 years of experience as an economic expert witness. He earned his Ph.D. in financial economics from the Anderson Graduate School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles.

To come up with the CPEA model, Trout surveyed and analyzed the work habits of about 65,000 U.S. workers. That represents one of every 1,000 households in the nation.

The survey examined such factors as income, education level, age, race, job type, industry type, how long a worker had been with his current employer and how often the worker changed jobs. Results showed age, income, education and the length of time with a current employer were important in determining how long an employee stayed on the job. Job type, however, was only marginally important, Trout said.

"The more educated you are, the more likely you'll stay with your job," he said.

But as age and income increase, workers are more willing to leave the security of their longtime jobs, either because they're less dependent on their salaries or because they want to pursue second careers and other personal goals.

Overall, about 88 percent of people who leave their jobs do so voluntarily. The other 12 percent lose their jobs due to such factors as termination, layoffs and closures, according to Trout.

In addition to wrongful termination cases, Trout has done extensive work with condemnation cases, valuing business goodwill - the intangibles that build a loyal clientele, such as location, quality of products or services and managerial acuity.

"If you're forced to move, in most states you can make a claim that the condemnor has to pay for tangible assets like property, buildings and (fixtures and equipment) that can't be removed. But you can also claim lost business goodwill," he explained.

During his off hours, Trout trades cerebral for physical exercise, playing a vigorous game of basketball or tournament squash. He's been involved with Scouting and also puts in a good deal of time coaching youth sports, including soccer, baseball and basketball. He and his wife have a 16-year-old son.

Contact Robert R. Trout at:

Lit.Econ LLP
7311 Borla Pl.
Carlsbad, Calif. 92009-7802
Phone: (760) 944-9721, Fax: (760) 944-4551
E-mail: ecnxprt@aol.com